Current Market Dynamics
The Global Oil Market is influenced by various factors that impact pricing and supply dynamics.
The oil market remains under pressure as global supply growth outpaces demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that oil supply rose to a record high of approximately 105.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in July 2025, supported by an OPEC+ plan to unwind previously agreed production cuts, adding further upward momentum to output. At the same time, demand is showing modest recovery, particularly in non-OECD countries, while emerging markets are experiencing sluggish growth. The Global Oil Market is seeing these changes unfold rapidly. (source: IEA)
Prices in July reflected this oversupply, with Brent crude hovering near $70–67 per barrel, down from earlier highs as OPEC+ signaled expanded supply capacity.
Additional supply concerns come from the IOEA’s warning of a growing oil glut persisting into late 2025. The IEA forecasts supply-demand ihttp://Financial Timesmbalances could reach 2.5 mb/d, largely due to higher production from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members, while demand growth remains weak—making Q4 2025 a vulnerable period for oil prices.(source: Financial times)
Moreover, crude inventories in the U.S. plummeted by 6 million barrels, driven by a surge in exports. This decline supports prices in the short term, offering temporary respite amid broader oversupply concerns.
On the geopolitical front, the U.S. is considering new tariffs on Indian exports tied to its imports of discounted Russian oil. Markets are monitoring the impact on global supply chains and pricing; initial effects on Brent and WTI remain moderate but may evolve as policies unfold.
Q4 2025 Forecast — What Analysts Expect
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a notable drop in Brent crude prices from approximately $71/b in July to an average of $58/b in Q4 2025. This is driven by exaggerated supply growth and mounting inventories expected to exceed 2 million barrels per day.
Rigzone’s summary of the EIA STEO aligns with the expectation of falling prices: Brent is forecasted at $58.05 in Q4 2025, descending to around $50 by early 2026.
Goldman Sachs projects Brent crude to average approximately $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 and around $56 in 2026. However, the institution notes potential downside risks tied to weak economic signals and trade tensions.
Conclusion
For the final quarter of 2025, Global Oil Market prices are projected to decrease significantly, with most major forecasters (EIA, Goldman Sachs) estimating Brent crude will average roughly $58–64 per barrel. This decline is primarily driven by intensified production, inventory buildup, and tepid demand growth. However, markets should remain alert—geo-political events or sanctions (for instance, tariff actions or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz) could swing prices upward unexpectedly.
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