1. Current Market Overview – July 2025
Crude Oil Prices
-
Brent crude hovered around $69/barrel, while WTI traded near $65–69/barrel in late July 2025 Reuters.
-
Oil saw a mid‑July surge (over 3% rise) following U.S. signals of sanctions on Russian oil buyers, heightening geopolitical concerns Reuters+2Barron’s+2Reuters+2.
OPEC+ announced plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels/day from August, which is expected to bring more supply into the market despite strong summer demand (especially in Asia) Reuters+3Barron’s+3Reuters+3.
Resin & Plastic Material Prices
-
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for plastics and resins stood at 322.19 in June 2025, up 0.09% from May and +0.29% year-over-year ycharts.com+1fred.stlouisfed.org+1.
-
Commodity resins such as PE and PP remained flat to slightly up in early August, with producers eyeing modest per-pound increases (~$0.03) in July–August ptonline.com+4ptonline.com+4plasticstoday.com+4.
2. Key Drivers Behind Current Prices
-
Rising OPEC+ Output: With supply expected to ramp up, inventory build‑up may exert downward pressure Barron’siea.org.
-
Geopolitical Risk Premiums: Threats of Russia sanctions and Middle East tensions keep short-term upside risk alive Barron’s+1naga.com+1.
-
Seasonal Demand in Asia: Saudi Arabia raised selling prices to Asia in September, indicating continued demand strength in the region Reuters.
-
Economic Pressure & Trade Uncertainty: Global slowdown risks and trade policy pressure could reduce demand growth forecasts theguardian.comnaga.com.
3. Forecast: August–October 2025
Oil Price Outlook
-
Short-term Brent prices are likely to remain in the $60–70/bbl band into late summer.
-
Goldman Sachs projects average Brent at $66/bbl H2 2025 (WTI $63), with long-term downside risk toward $58–60 if supply stays strong Reuters+5Reuters+5naga.com+5.
-
EIA forecasts Brent average around $69 in 2025, with a decline to average $58 in 2026, considering rising inventories and supply expansion eia.gov+2eia.gov+2naga.com+2.
Estimated August–October Range:
-
Brent: $60–68/bbl, with possible spikes if conflicts escalate.
-
Any serious Middle East disruption (e.g., Hormuz threats) could push prices temporarily above $80+ en.wikipedia.org.
Resin Prices Expectation
-
Resin prices are predicted to hold flat to slightly higher in August, following small inflationary cost pushes ptonline.complasticstoday.com.
-
The PPI trend indicates modest monthly increases but remains broadly stable for now ycharts.com.
4. What Buyers Should Do
-
Lock in contracts early: If your material procurement is sensitive to rising oil, consider hedging through fixed contracts now.
-
Plan for volatility spikes: Budget for potential $2–3/bbl surges due to geopolitical events.
-
Monitor resin indices monthly: A PPI climb of >0.1% could imply rising resin costs soon.
5. Final Thoughts
Crude oil and plastic resin markets are at a pivotal point—supply growth is strong, demand is steady, and geopolitical events could swing price sentiment quickly.
If you purchase resin or petrochemical products, the next few months call for strategic planning, early booking, and risk buffering.
For more information about Hanpak’s plastic bag products and Alibaba shop, please contact us:
Email: info@hanpak.com.vn
Hotline (Mobile/WhatsApp): +84 898 545 893
Our experienced sales team is ready to assist you. Contact us today to place your order and experience the quality and reliability that Hanpak offers.